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美联储加息与人民币贬值哪个更可怕

发表时间:2017-01-03内容来源:VOA英语学习网
The current will-they-won’t-they game is over at last: the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday. 当下这场加不加息的游戏终于要落幕了:美联储(Fed)将在周三加息。 So say investors, who have fully priced in a quarter-point rise. 投资者是这样说的,他们全力押注美联储肯定加息25个基点。 But for emerging markets, particularly in Asia, such a move will only prompt another question, namely which matters more for 2017 — the Fed, or China? 但对新兴市场、尤其是亚洲新兴市场而言,此举只会引发另一个问题:2017年哪一个因素更重要——美联储,还是中国? Emerging Asia just suffered its worst month of outflows since the taper tantrum of 2013. 亚洲新兴市场刚刚遭受了自2013年缩减恐慌(taper tantrum)以来最严重的月度资金外流。 A net $22bn fled the region’s stock and bond markets in November, according to ANZ in a Trump tantrum. 澳新银行(ANZ)数据显示,在特朗普恐慌(Trump tantrum)中,11月份亚洲新兴经济体股票和债券市场净流出220亿美元。 Departing investors expect that the president-elect’s infrastructure spending plans and tax cut plans would boost inflation and push up interest rates further. 正在离场的投资者预期,特朗普的基础设施支出计划及减税计划将提高通胀,并进一步推高利率。 Until the latest move, links between US interest rates and local markets had appeared to weaken, leaving Asia to trade on its relative merits. 在美联储采取最新动作之前,美国利率水平和亚洲市场之间的关联似乎有所减弱,这使得亚洲可以利用自身的相对优势。 As a result, this apparent re-coupling has come as a sharp shock. 因此,关联性重新增强无疑是一次强烈冲击。 The Fed risk is based on assumptions that the US will curb resurgent inflation with an unexpectedly speedy series of rate rises — hitting Asian borrowers hard. 关于美联储会带来什么风险,基本假设是:美国将利用出其不意的一连串快速加息抑制通胀抬头,这将对亚洲的借款者造成很大冲击。 Sharp rises in US yields — 10-year Treasuries hit two-year highs on Monday — have already lifted Asian equivalents. 美国国债收益率大幅上涨——10年期美国国债收益率周一触及两年高位——已经带动亚洲国债收益率上升。 Higher rates in the US would also limit the attraction of EM assets, whose currencies tend to gain only slightly from net inflows, according to research by Société Générale, but weaken sharply when the money moves out. 根据法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的研究,美国利率升高还将抑制新兴市场资产的吸引力,新兴市场的货币往往在资金净流入时只获得小幅升值,却在资金流出时大幅贬值。 China’s role depends on its currency and its economy. 中国扮演的角色取决于其货币和经济。 In spite of Beijing’s slow-and-steady approach, a sharp weakening of the renminbi remains one of emerging Asia’s biggest fears: it risks denting rivals’ export competitiveness at a stroke, as well as destabilising global markets. 虽然北京方面采取了稳扎稳打的方式,但是人民币大幅贬值仍是亚洲新兴市场最担忧的问题之一:大幅贬值可能一举削弱竞争对手的出口竞争力,还会让全球市场陷入不稳定。 China’s economic growth, too, is uNPRedictable as it tries to balance expansion with efforts to streamline inefficient industries. 中国的经济增长也难以预料,因为中国力图在精简低效产业的同时维持经济扩张。 Expect any weakness to show up first in its neighbours’ export and commodity sectors. 预计会先出现疲软的是其邻国的出口和大宗商品领域。 The risks posed by China are more alarming, but less measurable than the actions of the Fed. 中国带来的风险更令人担忧,但没有美联储行动所带来的风险那么容易察觉。 Expect to see China fears cited in moments of market mayhem but the actions of the Fed to play a larger role in everyday emerging Asia. 一旦市场出现动荡,对中国的担忧会被认为是造成混乱的原因,但在亚洲新兴市场的日常市况中,美联储所采取行动的影响会更大。 Starting on Wednesday, the will-they-won’t-they game will begin all over again as investors attempt to gauge just how hawkish the US central bank really is. 从周三开始,随着投资者尝试判断美国央行的立场到底有多么鹰派,揣测美联储加不加息的游戏将再度上演。 来自:VOA英语网 文章地址: http://www.tingvoa.com/html/20170103/422323.html
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